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    POPULATION THEORIES AND MODELS 2026-2027 - PROF. MARIA LETIZIA TANTURRI

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    • Are you curious about demographic phenomena and the analytical methods used in Demography?
    • Do you fancy trying out a new way of learning and putting yourself to the test?
    • Are you tired of memorising concepts, but also want to put your KNOWLEDGE into practice, acquiring SKILLS that are useful for the job market, moving from knowledge to hard and soft skills?
    • Would you like to work in groups in class to help you learn and perhaps have fun together, taking part in engaging challenges?
    • Would you like to put your English to the test by using it as a real working language? 

    Team based learning: each student brings a part of a jigsaw puzzle     Then this is the right course for you!

    The POPULATION THEORIES AND MODELS course is delivered using the Team-Based Learning method.

    Come along to the first lesson (Tuesday 23 September at 2.30 pm - ROOM SC20) to give it a go!

    • It will help you organise your study time more effectively so you don’t end up cramming everything at the last minute: in fact, we’ll alternate a week of independent study with a week of classroom activities! Each lesson will last three academic hours.
    • We’ll create a cooperative learning environment, where not only the lecturer, but each of you will help others to learn. And you’ll be amazed at just how useful this is!
    • Regular and active attendance will also allow you to earn up to 3 bonus marks towards your final grade

    I look forward to meeting you there!

    • Annunci Forum
    • Pagina dell'offerta Formativa URL

    • Hello! I am Maria Letizia Tanturri - instructor of this course.

      I am a Professor of Demography  at the Department of Statistical Sciences.

      My OFFICE HOUR in the first semester is: Thursday: 11.30-12.30

      My office is at the Department of Statistical Sciences, # 161.

      Please, always contact me, via e-mail (ml.tanturri@unipd.it ) before coming or to arrange a meeting in a different time or a Zoom meeting.

    • Forum: requests and questions from the students of general interests
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    Text book and materials

    • HANDBOOK 1: PRB Population Handbook File

      A concise text, useful for quickly acquiring a basic understanding of the subject for those who have never studied demography. 

      Caricato il 20/09/2026 18:05
    • HANDBOOK 2 - Population - Introduction to Demography File

      A concise text, useful for quickly acquiring a basic understanding of the subject for those who have never studied demography. It provides a basic understanding of demography and demographic processes, including fertility, mortality, and migration, and their effects on the world.

      Caricato il 20/09/2026 18:05

    • HANDBOOK 3 - Preston, Demography

      Each week on the Moodle you will find the part that you have to study for the activities of the following week in classroom.

    • Handbook 4- Livi Bacci, A concise history of the world population, Ch. 4, 5 e 7

      Available via library resources in electonic formats. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/9781394295777

      A Concise History of World Population -

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    Useful databases for demographic analysis

    MAIN SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

    WORLD POPULATION DATA

    United Nations Population Division: World Population Prospects

    Human Mortality Database (HMD)
    The world's leading scientific data resource on mortality in developed countries. (Data available by cohort and year)

    Human Fertility Database
    National-level data, comparative across Europe and some non-European countries.

    Cohort Fertility and Education Database
    Very useful for comparing the evolution of fertility rates over time by education level, and for cross-country comparisons.

    EUROPEAN POPULATION DATA

    Eurostat Database

    ITALIAN POPULATION DATA

    ISTAT Demographic Portal
    Data on the Italian population (structure and dynamics) by territorial division, region, province, and municipality; annual and monthly demographic balance; foreign citizens; mortality and fertility tables by year; population forecasts; marriage data, and more.

    ISTAT Data Portal
    Italian data on population and period/cohort fertility indicators at national, regional, and territorial division levels. Also includes data for calculating the probability of childbearing progression and the proportion of women by number of children.

    DEMOGRAPHIC MICRODATA

    IPUMS International
    Dedicated to collecting and distributing census data from around the world. The project's goals are to collect and preserve data and documentation, harmonize data, and disseminate the harmonized data free of charge.
    98 countries – 443 censuses and surveys

    DHS – Demographic and Health Survey
    Program and STATcompiler tool.

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    Population Theories and Models: Instruction for use

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    The Team-Based Learning Method without secrets

    • Video: How Team Based Learning works in the Academia URL

      The example of Medical School in Singapore

    • SLIDE: The TBL Methods File
      Caricato il 24/09/2026 09:28
    • Material to be read by the 24th of September 2026, h. 14.30 File
      Gli studenti devono
      Spunta come completato

      This article explain what the Team Based Learning method is and how it works. Please read it before the class.

      Caricato il 20/09/2026 18:05
    • APPEAL File
      Caricato il 20/09/2026 18:05
    • Peer review form File
      Caricato il 20/09/2026 18:05
    • QUIZ: TBL i_RAT
      Aperto: giovedì, 24 settembre 2026, 14:30
      Chiuso: giovedì, 24 settembre 2026, 16:30
      Gli studenti devono
      Visualizzare

      Here is the first individual quiz: 8 questions in 10 minutes.

      You must answer on your own, without consulting the texts.

      When the 10 minutes are up, the test will close and be submitted automatically.

      For each correct answer: 1 mark.

      For each question left blank: 0 marks

      For each incorrect answer: -0.1.

      But do not worry. This first test will not be graded!! 

    • QUIZ: TBL tRAT
      Aperto: giovedì, 24 settembre 2026, 14:40
      Chiuso: giovedì, 24 settembre 2026, 16:25
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      Visualizzare

      Here’s the first group quiz.

      After discussing it among you, you must answer as a group and give a single shared answer for the whole group.

      If it’s correct, you can move on. If it’s wrong, you can have another go, with your score decreasing with each attempt.

      Books and other materials must remain closed this time too!

      Good luck!!

    • T-APP - 1&2 File
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    The Demographic transition Theory

    • The 200 years that changed the world URL
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    • The population and me URL
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    • Video - Ined. The demographic transition URL
    • HANDBOOK - A Concise history of the world population (CH 4) File

      Modificato il 6/10/2026 14:41
    • HANDBOOK 2 - A Concise history of the world population (The population of poor countries -CH 5) File

      Caricato il 28/09/2026 19:00
    • SLIDE: The Theory of Demographic transition File
      Gli studenti devono
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    • SLIDE: The demographic transition in the Developing Countries File
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    • i_RAT: PopulationChange and Demographic transition Quiz
      Aperto: martedì, 6 ottobre 2026, 14:30
      Chiuso: martedì, 6 ottobre 2026, 16:50
      Gli studenti devono
      Visualizzare
      Ricevere una valutazione

      Quiz on Demographic Transition.

      18 minutes to answer 12 questions!

      Please note: 

      Correct answer: 1 point

      No answer: 0 points

      Incorrect answer: -0.10

    • t_RAT: PopulationChange and Demographic transition Quiz
      Aperto: martedì, 6 ottobre 2026, 14:40
      Chiuso: martedì, 6 ottobre 2026, 16:40

      You have 45 minutes to answer the same 12 questions as a group!


      Once again, you can make multiple attempts to select the correct answer, but please note: your score will decrease.

      If you feel that a question is not clearly worded or that the answer options are unclear, you can submit an appeal.

      Condizioni per l'accesso: Appartenere ad un gruppo presente in TBL-TEAMS
    • Gli studenti devono
      Spunta come completato

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      MATERIAL FOR THE T-APP1

    • T-APP1 - Identify the correct stage of the Demographic transition for the UN File
      Gli studenti devono
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    • Graph: The demographic transition framework File
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    • UPLOAD T-APP1 Compito
      Aperto: mercoledì, 7 ottobre 2026, 13:30
      Data limite: mercoledì, 7 ottobre 2026, 15:30
      Condizioni per l'accesso: Appartenere ad un gruppo presente in TBL-TEAMS
    • T-APP1- IDEAS FOR SOLUTIONS File
    • Gli studenti devono
      Spunta come completato

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      MATERIAL FOR THE T-APP2

    • T-APP2 - Create a poster to illustrate the Demographic Transition at school File

      • TIPS FOR CREATING AN ACADEMIC POSTER

        1. Choose suitable software: Use programs such as PowerPoint, Adobe InDesign, or Canva (log in with Unipd SSO), which offer templates and tools specifically designed for academic posters.
        2. Define the structure: Organize the content into columns, typically 3 to 5 for a horizontal format. This helps guide the reader through the information in a logical way.
        3. Use a clear layout: Create a visual hierarchy with titles, subtitles, and main text. Make sure there is a logical flow of information from left to right.
        4. Select essential content: Include only the most relevant information. Be concise and use bullet points whenever possible.
        5. Optimize visual elements: Use high-quality charts, tables, and images to illustrate your key points. Make sure they are readable even from a distance.
        6. Choose appropriate colours: Use a consistent color palette, linked either to your institution or to the research theme.
        7. Select readable fonts: Use sans-serif fonts for better readability from a distance. The main text should be at least 24–28 points in size.
        8. Balance text and white space: Leave enough white space to avoid visually overloading the poster.
    • Come realizzare un poster con powerpoint File
    • Free templates - Wild Screen in Powerpoint URL
    • T_APP2 - UP-LOAD your POSTER Compito
      Aperto: giovedì, 8 ottobre 2026, 09:15
      Data limite: giovedì, 8 ottobre 2026, 11:00
      Condizioni per l'accesso: Appartenere ad un gruppo presente in TBL-TEAMS
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    Age specific rates, standardization, decomposition

    • Period-age specific rates
    • Age standardization: direct and indirect
    • Decomposition of differences between rates and proportions
    • Longitudinal and cross section analysis
    • Death probability
    • Infant mortality rate

    • Gli studenti devono
      Spunta come completato
      • READING MATERIAL
      1. PRESTON HANDBOOOK: CHAPTER 1 (it is a review of the basic tools of Demography). Easy for those who have already studied demography, a bit more challanging for the others (the PRB e-book can help).
      2. PRESTON HANDBOOOK: CHAPTER 2, with particular attention to age- standardization and decomposition.
      • VIDEO:
      1. Age standardised mortality rate (Greg Martin, University of Limerick)
    • Video - by Greg Martin, University of Limerick URL
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    • Lezione 6. Age specific rates and standardization File

      Period age specific rates.The influence of age structure on demographic processes. How to compare processes across time and spaces correctly. Direct and indirect standardization

    • Lezione 7_Kitagawa decomposition, File

      Kitagawa decomposition

    • I-RAT Chapter 1-2 Quiz
      Aperto: martedì, 20 ottobre 2026, 14:30
      Chiuso: martedì, 20 ottobre 2026, 17:26
      Gli studenti devono
      Visualizzare
      Ricevere una valutazione

      The quiz consists of 18 questions, and you have 36 minutes to complete it.

      Correct answer: 100% score

      No answer: 0

      Wrong answer: -10% penalty

    • T-RAT Chapter 1-2 Quiz
      Aperto: martedì, 20 ottobre 2026, 15:00
      Chiuso: martedì, 20 ottobre 2026, 17:00

      You have one hour to answer the 18 questions again!

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      MATERIAL FOR THE T-APP1

    • T-APP 1- The case of the Pharmarceutical Company File
    • T-APP1 - DATA Cartella
    • T-APP1 - UPLOAD _REPORT Compito
      Aperto: mercoledì, 21 ottobre 2026, 13:30
      Data limite: mercoledì, 21 ottobre 2026, 15:21
      Condizioni per l'accesso: Appartenere ad un gruppo presente in TBL-TEAMS

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      MATERIAL FOR THE T-APP2

    • T-APP2 THE CASE OF THE ISTAT PRESIDENT File
    • T-APP2 DATA File
    • T-APP2 - Upload Report Compito
      Aperto: giovedì, 22 ottobre 2026, 08:30
      Data limite: giovedì, 22 ottobre 2026, 10:30
      Condizioni per l'accesso: Appartenere ad un gruppo presente in TBL-TEAMS
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    Life Table and Single decrement Process

    un cimitero anglosassone

    Relationship between mortality rates and probability of dying. How to estimate a.

    Period life table construction. The very young ages. The Open Ended Age Interval. Interpreting the life table.

    Life table as a stationary population. Mortality as a continuous process.

    Decomposing differences in life expectancy.

    How to calculate Healthy life expectancy.

    Studying other single decrement process. SMAM.

    • Gli studenti devono
      Spunta come completato
      • READING MATERIAL
      1. PRESTON HANDBOOOK: CHAPTER 3:
        • par. 3.1
        • par. 3.2
        • par. 3.3
        • par. 3.4
        • par. 3.5
        • par. 3.6
        • par. 3.10
      2. Slide on these topics are also provided to facilitate the study.
      • VIDEO:
      1. What is life expectancy? (Prof. Cohen, University of Mariland)
      2. Life Expectancy and longevity (Ined) 
    • Video: What is life expectancy (Cohen, University of Maryland) URL
      Gli studenti devono
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    • Video: Life expectancy and the longevity perspectives (INED) URL
      Gli studenti devono
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    • Reading on Sullivan's method to calculate Healthy Life Expectancy File
    • Slide Lecture 9: A cohort life table File
    • Lesson 10.- How to build a period life table from real data File
    • USEFUL DATA SOURCES FOR STUDYING MORTALITY
      1. The Human Mortality database web-site. The Human Mortality Database (HMD) is the world´s leading scientific data resource on mortality in developed countries. The HMD provides detailed high-quality harmonized mortality and population estimates to researchers and students.
      2. Italian Life Tables Mortality Tables for the Resident Population. Time Series (1974–2022) by territorial areas/Region/Province
    • I-RAT Chapter 3 Life Table I Quiz
      Aperto: martedì, 3 novembre 2026, 14:30
      Chiuso: martedì, 3 novembre 2026, 17:30
      Gli studenti devono
      Visualizzare
      Ricevere una valutazione

      The test consists of 15 questions to be answered in 30 minutes.

      Good luck!

    • T-RAT Chapter 3 Life Table I Quiz
      Aperto: martedì, 3 novembre 2026, 15:00
      Chiuso: martedì, 3 novembre 2026, 17:45

      The test consists of 15 questions to be answered in 45 minutes in your team.

      Good luck!

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      MATERIAL FOR THE T-APP1

    • The case: the doctor Mouse Syndrome File
    • T-APP1 DATA: Age specific mortality rate at Mouseton File
    • T-APP1: Short Report to Doctor Mouse Compito
      Aperto: mercoledì, 4 novembre 2026, 13:30
      Data limite: mercoledì, 4 novembre 2026, 14:50

      Upload your report! Doctor Mouse will be grateful to you!!

      Condizioni per l'accesso: Appartenere ad un gruppo presente in TBL-TEAMS

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      MATERIAL FOR THE T-APP2

    • TAPP2_DATI Cartella
    • T-APP2_Upload your Life table Compito
      Aperto: giovedì, 5 novembre 2026, 08:26
      Data limite: giovedì, 5 novembre 2026, 09:00
      Condizioni per l'accesso: Appartenere ad un gruppo presente in TBL-TEAMS

    • _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      MATERIAL FOR THE T-APP3

    • T-APP3 - The Ministry of health's concerns File
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    • T-APP3: DATA Cartella
    • T-APP3: REPORT for the Ministry of Health Compito
      Aperto: giovedì, 5 novembre 2026, 09:15
      Data limite: giovedì, 5 novembre 2026, 10:50
      Gli studenti devono
      Visualizzare
      Consegnare
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    Stationary population & Multiple Decrement Life table

    - The Life Table conceived as a stationary population model
    - Decomposing differences in Life Expectancies
    - Adaptation of the Life Table for studying other single decrement processes
    - The singulate mean age at marriage

    - Multidecrement Life tables for cohort and period
    - Associated Single Decrement Tables from Period data
    - Cause specific Decomposition of differences in Life Expectancies
    - Associated single decrement from current status data

      • READING MATERIAL
      1. PRESTON HANDBOOOK: CHAPTER 3:
        • par. 3.7 (Stationary population)
        • par. 3.8
        • par. 3.10
        • par.3.11
      2. PRESTON HANDBOOOK: CHAPTER 4:
      • par. 4.1
      • par. 4.2
      • par. 4.4
      • par. 4.5
      • par. 4.6
      • par. 4.7
        • VIDEO:
        1. The Epidemiological transition (Greg Martin)
      • VIDEO: The epidemiological transition (Greg Martin) URL

      • _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

        MATERIAL FOR THE T-APP3

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